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Economy

Fed Decision in October?

Yield

25 bps increase

24%

50+ bps decrease

3%

No change

61%

25 bps decrease

10%

50+ bps increase

2%

$163 Vol

Oct 28 @ 11:59PM

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

Yield

December 31, 2026

5%

June 30, 2027

8%

$0 Vol

Jun 30, 2027 @ 11:59PM

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Yield

0 (0 bps)

82%

1 (25 bps)

12%

2 (50 bps)

4%

3 (75 bps)

1%

4 (100 bps)

1%

5 (125 bps)

1%

6 (150 bps)

2%

7 (175 bps)

1%

8 (200 bps)

1%

9 (225 bps)

1%

10 (250 bps)

2%

11 (275 bps)

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

1%

$9.3M Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 5:00AM

Fed Decision in July?

Yield

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

1%

No change

74%

25 bps increase

27%

50+ bps increase

1%

$1.5M Vol

Jul 30 @ 12:00AM

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Yield

↑ 5.5%

46%

↑ 5.25%

14.9%

↑ 5.0%

5.9%

↑ 4.75%

6%

↑ 4.5%

18%

↑ 4.25%

41%

↓ 3.25%

12%

↓ 3.0%

4%

↓ 2.75%

4%

↓ 2.5%

4%

↓ 2.25%

4%

↓ 2.0%

0.2%

↓ 1.75%

3%

↓ 1.5%

3%

↓ 1.25%

7%

↓ 1.0%

3%

↓ 0.75%

3%

↓ 0.5%

5%

↓ 0.25%

5%

↓ 0%

3%

$576K Vol

Dec 31 @ 12:00AM

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yield

71%

29%

$5.9M Vol

Dec 9 @ 12:00AM